Business life: My finance news blog

WASHINGTON–The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 per cent pace in the third quarter as the recovery got off to a weaker start than previously thought. But all signs suggest the economy will end the year on a stronger footing.

The commerce department’s new reading on gross domestic product for the July-to-September quarter was slower than the 2.8 per cent growth rate estimated a month ago. Economists had predicted this figure would remain the same in the final estimate of the quarter’s GDP – the value of all goods and services produced in the United States.

The main factors behind the downgrade were that consumers didn’t spend as much, commercial construction was weaker, business investment in equipment and software was softer and companies cut back more on their stockpiles of goods.

Even so, the economy managed to return to growth during the quarter, after a record four straight quarters of decline. That signalled that the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s had ended and the economy had entered a new fragile phase of recovery.

Despite the lower GDP reading, many analysts still think the economy is on track for a better finish in the current quarter.

Tuesday’s report showed consumer spending grew at a 2.8 per cent pace, slightly weaker than the 2.9 per cent rate previously estimated and one of the factors behind the lower overall reading.

Retail sales, though, showed momentum in October and November. That raised hopes that holiday sales would fare better than last year’s season, the worst in nearly four decades.

The economy is probably growing at nearly 4 per cent in the October-to-December quarter, analysts say. A few peg it closer to 5 per cent. If they’re right, that would mark the strongest showing since 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2006 – well before the recession began. The government will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter economic activity on Jan. 29.

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